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As of March 22, the bitcoin holdings of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) have diminished by 27,917.37 compared to its status three days prior, now amounting to 350,252 bitcoin valued at approximately $22.2 billion. Since evolving into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) listed on public exchanges, GBTC has shed billions in bitcoin over the preceding 71 days. […]
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Tag: peak
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From Peak to Present: GBTC’s Bitcoin Holdings Decrease by 266,827 BTC in 71 Days
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Time To Be Fearful? Bitcoin Index Reaches Greediest Point Since Peak
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Data shows the Bitcoin fear and greed index has now reached the highest level since the peak in November as the price of the crypto rallies up.
Bitcoin Fear And Greed Index Now Points At “Greed”
As per the latest weekly report from Arcane Research, the BTC fear and greed index has surged to values of greed sentiment this week.
The “fear and greed index” is an indicator that tells us about the current general market sentiment among Bitcoin investors.
The metric uses a numeric scale that travels from one to hundred for representing this sentiment. All values above fifty signify that investors are greedy at the moment. While those below the cutoff suggest a fearful market.
Values above 75 and below 25, that is, the values toward the ends of the range, represent extreme greed and extreme fear, respectively.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin fear and greed index over the past year:
Looks like the value of the indicator has surged up recently | Source: Arcane Research's The Weekly Update - Week 12, 2022
As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin fear and greed index has sharply risen over the past week. The indicator now has a value of 56, which shows the market is getting greedy.
This value of the metric is now more than in any other period in the year 2022 so far, and is the highest since the peak in early November of last year.
Related Reading | Glassnode’s RHODL Ratio May Suggest Bitcoin Market Is Near Capitulation
Historically, Bitcoin peaks have tended to happen while the sentiment is that of extreme greed, and bottoms have formed during periods of extreme fear.
There is a popular trading technique called “contrarian investing” that makes use of this fact. Traders following this methodology think that the best time to buy is during extreme fear, while extreme greed is when one should sell.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Weekly Momentum Flips Bullish For First Time In 2022: What Data Says
This famous quote by Warren Buffet sums up this philosophy: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
So, following the line of thinking of contrarian investors, the current market sentiment turning greedy may be a sign that you should now start getting fearful instead.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $47.3k, up 12% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has gained 26% in value.
The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.
The price of Bitcoin seems to have surged up over the past few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Arcane Research
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Bitcoin will peak at $253K, Ethereum at $22K this cycle if 2016 halving bull run repeats
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Bitcoin (BTC) may be over seven times higher than at its last halving, but if history repeats, that number could grow another 300% and more.
As tracked by on-chain data source Ecoinometrics this month, BTC/USD has the potential to eclipse estimates simply by following historical precedent.
Bitcoin: Compared to 2017, you ain’t seen nothing yet
Bitcoin currently trades 7.3 times its price since the halving in May 2020. If the last halving cycle is anything to go by, however, price action will not stop until it is 30 times higher.
The data relates to the roughly four-year halving cycles in which Bitcoin has exhibited identical behavior since its inception.
The current cycle, despite impatience from some traders, remains closely tied to the previous two.
Taking 2017 as an example, the next BTC price peak could be as much as $253,800 — and even then, Bitcoin would still be acting within previously defined parameters.
Ecoinometrics also includes data on Ether (ETH) and its performance relative to the stage of Bitcoin’s halving cycle.
The largest altcoin saw much larger comparative gains relative to Bitcoin — 120 times its halving price marked last cycle’s peak in 2018.
Thus, a repeat performance would mean ETH/USD trading at $22,300 — again not beyond the realms of possibility.
In terms of what the subsequent bear market could bring, Bitcoin would need to bottom out at around $42,000 to copy its post-2017 correction. ETH’s price, on the other hand, would fall to $1,347.
Bitcoin and Ether post-halving performance chart. Source: Ecoinometrics/Twitter 1 BTC = 1 BTC
If such sky-high figures are difficult to comprehend, they pale in comparison to what well-known data analyst Willy Woo now believes.
Related: Bitcoin retests support, with trader forecasting BTC price dip to $55K
In a tweet this week, Woo reiterated that this Bitcoin halving cycle would be unique in one specific way: It will end in things being priced in BTC, not United States dollars, as using anything to measure BTC value will be pointless.
“What’s my prediction for the top of this cycle? Since I think this is the last cycle, the one that takes us to saturation, which if it wins, we can’t put a USD value on it because things get valued in BTC,” he wrote.
“Thus the cycle top is easy to pick. It will be 1 BTC = 1 BTC.”
A separate post noted how close Bitcoin was getting by market capitalization compared to U.S. dollar M2 supply. The situation in the next five years — the remainder of the current cycle and start of the next — he commented, will be “very interesting.”
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