Over the past week, long-term holders of Bitcoin increased their spending to a level that suggests de-risking from the market, but hodling remains the predominant investing strategy.
Uncertain macroeconomic headwinds are likely to have precipitated the increase in the sell-offs last week by long-term holders and shaken some short-term holders out of their positions according to data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode. Last week, coins older than six months accounted for 5% of total spending, which is a level not seen since last November.
Short-term holders (STH) who have held coins for less than 155 days continue to decline in number, but not necessarily due to selling. Glassnode suggests that while it is generally more common for STH to sell, the recent decline in STH supply “can only occur when large portions of the coin supply are dormant and crossing the 155-day age threshold, becoming Long-Term Holder supply.”
Bitcoin (BTC) accumulation patterns do not suggest bear market behaviors yet as overall sell pressure remains consistent. Also, more than 75% of the BTC circulating supply has been dormant for at least six months despite the recent uptick in selling. Glassnode says this is an indication that investors are still predominantly hodlers.
Long-term Bitcoin holders increased selling last week. – Glassnode
Glassnode noted that the sell-offs have been into a relatively strong market that has avoided any significant moves up or down and has remained range-bound for most of this yea. This is thought to be staving off a capitulation event which often comes at the end of a bear cycle. There has not been a significant capitulation since last May when BTC price crashed from $58,771 to $34,977 over the course of a 15-day period according to CoinGecko.
The period from the May capitulation event until October marked the last time BTC accumulation resembled bear market behavior.
BTC accumulation patterns are still above bear market trends. – Glassnode
The profit/loss ratio of STH supply is still near the all-time low set in mid-2021. Currently, 82% of STH coins are being held at a loss which Glassnode states is an indication of the later stage of a bear market when savvy investors send their coins to cold storage to lie in wait for the return to positive profit margins.
Short-term holders are in near-record losses. – Glassnode
Related: BTC price struggles below $39K ahead of expected interest rate hike by the Fed
As noted in last week’s BTC market update, exchange outflows remain quite high. Coinbase saw its largest outflows in nearly five years last week with 31,130 BTC leaving the exchange. These outflows illustrate Bitcoin’s increasing reputation as a must-have in a modern investor’s portfolio, and a further reluctance to liquidate in a hurry.
After what looked to be a month of prosperity following the August bull run, Bitcoin has now entered into an era of increasingly bearish signals. The asset had seen a number of rallies that pushed it over two-month highs, successfully breaking above the $52K resistance range on a number of occasions. Throwing the entire market into a stretched-out period of positive sentiment.
September has now come with its own unique set of problems for the digital asset. Bitcoin price has been suffering since the beginning of the month, ushered in with a flash crash that rocked the market only a week into September. The market continues to suffer from the aftershock of this flash crash, which has left a trail of blood in the market, and led to massive liquidations.
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Bitcoin Price Crash Leads To Sell-Offs
In only a matter of days, the price of bitcoin has fallen from $47,000 to $40,000, which triggered liquidations in the market. The long liquidations totaled up to the tune of $860 million across exchanges. The liquidations took place over two days when the price of the digital asset had inevitably fallen to $40,000 on Tuesday, September 21st. Although significant, the liquidations, which were spread across two days, still sat below the sell-offs seen following the September 7th crash.
Related Reading | Did Bitcoin Really Experience A Flash Crash Down To $5,400?
Monday marked the beginning of the liquidations as the market saw $470 million long positions liquidated. And the following Tuesday, a total of $390 million long positions were liquidated as well. At this point, the price of bitcoin had hit levels not seen since mid-August. And as market sentiment shifted into the negative, the price continued to plunge.
BTC longs liquated on Monday and Tuesday add up to $860 million | Source: Arcane Research
Current sell-off volumes have remained beneath the $1.2 billion sell-off in early September, suggesting that this current sell-off is more organic than previous ones. Also, it shows that the current market is more influenced by spot activity compared to the derivatives market.
September And Its Chokehold On The Market
September has historically come with challenges for the crypto market. So the crash that rocked bitcoin and the entire market at the beginning of the month is on-brand. Crashes with at least a 17% value loss have happened in September for the past four years and it looks like 2021 has fallen in line with this trend.
However, the end of September has always come with better forecasts for the following month. Chart analysis show crashes in the month precede recoveries that put the market on course to regain its lost value. Setting the market up for another bull run.
BTC price trading north of $43K | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The price of BTC has now recovered above its Tuesday’s lows, which saw the digital asset plunge below $40K. Bitcoin is currently trading above $42,000 at the time of writing. While the total market cap has fallen below $800 billion.
Featured image from Bitcoin News, charts from Arcane Research and TradingView.com
Buying an asset in a downtrend can be a risky maneuver because most investors struggle to spot reversals and as the trend deepens traders take on deep losses. In instances like these, being able to spot descending channel patterns can help traders avoid buying in a bearish trend.
A “descending channel,” also known as a “bearish price channel” is formed by drawing two downward trendlines, parallel to each other, which confine the price action of the asset.
Descending channel basics
In a downtrend, the price action forms a series of lower highs and lower lows. A descending channel is drawn by joining the lower highs and the lower lows using parallel trendlines. The main trendline is drawn first where two or more lower highs are connected. Then a parallel line, also called the channel line, is drawn connecting the lower lows.
The price action inside a descending channel continues to move south as bears sell on any relief rallies to the main trendline.
Descending channel pattern. Source: TradingView
The asset in the chart above is in a downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. The main trendline is drawn by joining two lower highs (marked as ellipses) while the parallel channel line is drawn by joining the two reaction lows.
When the price reaches the channel line, bulls believe that the price has become attractive and they buy, but the bears are in no mood to allow the bulls to have their way. They sell when the price reaches the main trendline and the trend remains down.
The trading inside the channel is usually random but bound between the two parallel lines. A break below the channel indicates that the bearish momentum has picked up and that could result in a spike down.
Conversely, a breakout of the descending channel suggests a possible change in trend. Sometimes these breakouts result in a new uptrend, but on other occasions the price action forms a range before resuming the downtrend.
Descending channel breakouts
THETA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The chart above shows THETA token in a descending channel where the main trendline is formed by joining the two lower highs made on April 16 and May 9. The parallel line drawn from the reaction low on April 18 forms the channel line.
As seen above, the price action is largely caged between these two lines. The bulls pushed the price above the channel on June 17 but could not sustain the higher levels. The bears again quickly pulled the price back into the channel, trapping the aggressive bulls.
There were a few spikes below the channel line but the long tails on the candlesticks show that bulls used these dips to buy. This shows how the lines act as strong support and resistance.
Finally, the price broke above the channel on July 24 and after a minor consolidation, the recovery continued. This confirmed a legitimate breakout, indicating a possible trend change.
XMR/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Monero (XMR) topped out on June 23, 2019, and then started a downtrend. The main trendline of the channel was formed by connecting the lower highs on July 8, 2019, and Aug. 8, 2019, while the channel line was drawn from the low on July 16, 2019. The XMR/USDT pair continued to trade inside the channel until Jan. 4, 2020.
The bulls pushed and closed the price above the channel on Jan. 5, 2020. This signaled a possible change in trend. The target objective can be arrived at by adding the height of the channel to the breakout level.
In the above case, the depth of the channel was $31.50. Adding this to the breakout level at $51.80, gave a target objective of $83.30. The pair easily exceeded the pattern target and turned down from $96.90 on Feb. 15, 2020.
This suggests that traders should use the target as a guide but decide on closing the position after analyzing other supportive indicators and patterns.
Descending channel breakdowns
LUNA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Terra’s LUNA token topped out at $22.40 on March 21. Thereafter, it started trading inside a descending channel pattern. The bears pulled the price below the channel line on April 18 but they could not sustain the lower levels. The bulls pushed the price back into the channel on April 23 and trapped the aggressive bears.
The sellers again broke below the channel line on May 19. Attempts by the bulls to push the price back into the channel failed on May 20 and May 21, confirming a valid breakdown. The pattern target of the breakdown was $5.10 and the LUNA/USDT pair bottomed out at $3.91.
Take care to not mix up bull flags and descending channels
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC) rallied sharply from $17,572.33 on Dec. 11, 2020 to $41,950 on Jan. 8, 2021. Subsequently, the price corrected inside two parallel lines, which was a bullish flag pattern but could have been easily mistaken for a descending channel.
Thomas Bulkowski, author of the book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, says when a pattern is less than three weeks long, it is a flag, but longer than that can be considered as a channel.
In the above example, the correction lasted for just over three weeks and the price resumed its up-move after breaking out of the flag.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
