Tag: Historical

  • Will This “Dry Powder” and Historical Trends Fuel A Price Boom?

    Will This “Dry Powder” and Historical Trends Fuel A Price Boom?

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    While Bitcoin has dipped from its recent highs of around $74,000, some analysts are urging investors to stay calm and even see this as a buying opportunity. So far, Bitcoin prices have remained under pressure, trickling lower in the past trading week.

    Are There Similarities With The Bitcoin Bull Run Of 2020?

    Though the downward momentum is slowing down, and there has been no confirmation of the April 2 dump, the failure of bulls to convincingly flow back and drive the coin above $71,000 remains a concern for some traders. 

    Bitcoin price trending sideways on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView
    Bitcoin price trending sideways on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

    Even so, taking a bullish stand, one analyst on X compares the current formation with that of 2020. Pointing to the cyclic nature of prices and the inevitability of retracements from bottoms and peaks, the trader expects prices to bounce.

    The trader said that in 2020, when Bitcoin prices fell, shaking out weak hands, the recovery sparked a bull run that forcefully saw the coin surge above previous all-time highs of $20,000. The analyst seems to allude to the retracement before the breakout as a catapult that eventually fed the “legendary” bull run, which saw Bitcoin float to as high as $70,000.

    BTC historical performance | Source: Analyst on X
    BTC historical performance | Source: Analyst on X

    Based on this comparison, the trader is adamant that it may, reading from history, be the best time to “sell” at around spot levels. Still, for now, buyers can consider doubling down until there is a clear trend definition and shake-off of the current bear formation. Currently, BTC has strong rejections in the $71,700 to $72,000 liquidation zone, marking last week’s highs.

    Watch Out For The “Dry Powder”

    Besides technical candlestick formation, another trader thinks buyers better HODL even with sellers in control.

    In a post on X, the analyst said Tether Holdings, the issuer of USDT, and Circle, the issuer of USDC, recently minted billions. On April 2, Tether issued 1 billion USDT on Tron, while Circle issued 250 million USDC on Solana. 

    This development, the analyst said, means there is “plenty of dry powder.” Stablecoins like USDT and USDC offer stability in the crypto markets, providing a refuge for crypto holders whenever prices tumble. 

    Tether minting USDT on Tron | Source: Analyst on X
    Tether minting USDT on Tron | Source: Analyst on X

    However, they can also act as conduits of liquidity from the traditional market, providing an avenue for interested users to get exposure to top coins or even engage in activities such as decentralized finance (DeFi). 

    In the past, prices often edged higher when there were huge stablecoin mints.

    Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView

    Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.



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  • Bitcoin Historical Volatility Fractal Points To Brewing Bullish Explosion

    Bitcoin Historical Volatility Fractal Points To Brewing Bullish Explosion

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    Bitcoin price has been trapped in a tightening trading range and has barely moved in weeks. The top cryptocurrency by market cap has been boring compared to its characteristically volatile self. 

    Looking back at the asset’s historic volatility, a fractal pattern could be forming that suggests the price per BTC is about to blast off to unprecedented heights. 

    Fractals And How History Doesn’t Rhyme But It Often Repeats

    Mark Twain said that “history doesn’t repeat, but if often rhymes.” The statement best explains the theory behind repeating price patterns called fractals.

    Related Reading | Bitcoin Ready For Display Of Strength, But Which Direction Will It Break

    These fractals appear similar to another point in historic price action, and help analysts to predict and anticipate future market behavior. The results can be mixed, as rarely do things play out exactly the same. This fact has earned fractals a negative reputation, however, even in Bitcoin there is some specific behavior that can be expected.

    bitcoin fractal

    Every cycle looks similar by comparison when zooming out | Source: BLX on TradingView.com

    For example, each major breakout past all-time high resulted in a parabolic uptrend and the visual comparisons are undeniable. The most recent uptrend of which has come to a screeching halt, turning a stumble into a full-on 50% or more collapse.

    While the market ponders if the bull trend is kaput, even technicals have become mixed. There is a handful of doji candles on the weekly, a tight trading range, and volatility has dropped to an important level. All of these signs point to a potential reaction, and if “history” has anything to do with it, the volatility should be released to the upside.

    What Historical Volatility Says About The Bitcoin Bull Run Finale

    All throughout nature there are fractal-like patterns that repeat again and again. Price action in financial assets commonly exhibit such repeating behavior, such as cycling between bear and bull markets.

    Bitcoin is no different, and is known for patterns that appear again and again. Looking back at the Historical Volatility indicator on weekly timeframes, we may have one of those instances brewing.

    bitcoin volatility fractal

    Mid-cycle consolidation then kicks volatility into high gear | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

    During the previous bull market, which is clear the current cycle isn’t quite following in terms of “only up” price action, after one of the largest shakeouts, volatility finally held above a key level and kickstarted the last leg of the bull market.

    Anyone who had assumed it was the peak of the cycle, would have been left in the dust as Bitcoin churned out another 900%+ of bull market ROI and volatility went parabolic.

    Related Reading | Bitcoin Trend Strength Indicator Suggests Bull Run Isn’t Yet Over

    Bitcoin is back and trying to hold above a very similar support line, and if successful, should send volatility back along a parabolic curve along with price action. That would put the top of the current bull cycle at around December, which – historically – has marked a significant top or bottom every year since 2017.

    Still think history doesn’t rhyme?

    Follow @TonySpilotro on Twitter or via the TonyTrades Telegram. Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

    Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com



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