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  • Bitcoin Settles Above $43,000, But What Does The 4-Year Cycle Say?

    Bitcoin Settles Above $43,000, But What Does The 4-Year Cycle Say?

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    Bitcoin has already lost its footing above $44K after breaking the coveted point to much fanfare. The downtrend has not been significant in any way but the digital asset could still end up losing more ground before the end of the trading day. Nevertheless, it has been a good run for bitcoin coming out of the weekend. As the cryptocurrency has made its bottom above $43,000, what could be expected going forward?

    Bitcoin In Four-Year Cycles

    As bitcoin has settled above $43,000, looking at other metrics to figure out where the digital asset may be headed has become imperative. In this report, we take a look at bitcoin through 4-year cycles and what it has often meant for the asset. Four years is important to the movement of bitcoin given that things like halvings happen in such timeframes. But for this, we take a look at the monthly EMA50 and how it works as the last correctional support before takeoff.

    Related Reading | TA: Bitcoin is Surging, Why Bulls Could Aim More Upsides

    The monthly exponential moving average is calculated using the past 50 periods. It is used to obtain the average price at which an asset has been acquired over a 50-day period. Thus, making it a widely used support level.

    Over the years, at four-year intervals, the monthly EMA50 has served to show the final correction support for bitcoin. The first time was between 2009 to 2013, a four-year period that ended with the monthly EMA50 working as the final correction support. The same happens between 2013 and 2017, 2017 and 2021, with the next happening between 2021 and 2025.

    For each of these, the monthly EMA50 has always stopped highly than the previous four-year cycle. Likewise, the price of bitcoin has not gone below this point.

    If this stays true, then bitcoin is likely forming its support higher than $30,000. Continuing on, this trend would put the price of the digital asset as high as $220,000 over the next four years.

    bitcoin chart

    EMA50 marks four-year cycles | Source: TradingView.com

    BTC On The Charts

    Long-term, bitcoin shows tremendous promise. With adoption expected to rise and supply on the decline, it would impose scarcity on the asset, making it even more valuable. However, in the short term, BTC continues to struggle price-wise.

    Related Reading | The Bear Signal That Suggests Another Bitcoin Crash Is Coming

    After fighting its way out of a bear trend, it remains up to the bulls to pull out from underneath the bears. Market sentiment is getting better but still remains mostly negative, making investors wary of putting more money into the market.

    Bitcoin is now trading in the $43,500 territory at the time of this writing. It lost about $2K after bursting through $45,000 in the early hours of Tuesday. But it has begun to recover after falling near $43,000.

    Bitcoin price chart from TradingView.com

    BTC slips to $43K | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
    Featured image from Tokeneo, charts from TradingView.com

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  • Bitcoin will peak at $253K, Ethereum at $22K this cycle if 2016 halving bull run repeats

    Bitcoin will peak at $253K, Ethereum at $22K this cycle if 2016 halving bull run repeats

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    Bitcoin (BTC) may be over seven times higher than at its last halving, but if history repeats, that number could grow another 300% and more.

    As tracked by on-chain data source Ecoinometrics this month, BTC/USD has the potential to eclipse estimates simply by following historical precedent.

    Bitcoin: Compared to 2017, you ain’t seen nothing yet

    Bitcoin currently trades 7.3 times its price since the halving in May 2020. If the last halving cycle is anything to go by, however, price action will not stop until it is 30 times higher.

    The data relates to the roughly four-year halving cycles in which Bitcoin has exhibited identical behavior since its inception.

    The current cycle, despite impatience from some traders, remains closely tied to the previous two.

    Taking 2017 as an example, the next BTC price peak could be as much as $253,800 — and even then, Bitcoin would still be acting within previously defined parameters.

    Ecoinometrics also includes data on Ether (ETH) and its performance relative to the stage of Bitcoin’s halving cycle.

    The largest altcoin saw much larger comparative gains relative to Bitcoin — 120 times its halving price marked last cycle’s peak in 2018.

    Thus, a repeat performance would mean ETH/USD trading at $22,300 — again not beyond the realms of possibility.

    In terms of what the subsequent bear market could bring, Bitcoin would need to bottom out at around $42,000 to copy its post-2017 correction. ETH’s price, on the other hand, would fall to $1,347.

    Bitcoin and Ether post-halving performance chart. Source: Ecoinometrics/Twitter

    1 BTC = 1 BTC

    If such sky-high figures are difficult to comprehend, they pale in comparison to what well-known data analyst Willy Woo now believes.

    Related: Bitcoin retests support, with trader forecasting BTC price dip to $55K

    In a tweet this week, Woo reiterated that this Bitcoin halving cycle would be unique in one specific way: It will end in things being priced in BTC, not United States dollars, as using anything to measure BTC value will be pointless.

    “What’s my prediction for the top of this cycle? Since I think this is the last cycle, the one that takes us to saturation, which if it wins, we can’t put a USD value on it because things get valued in BTC,” he wrote.

    “Thus the cycle top is easy to pick. It will be 1 BTC = 1 BTC.”

    A separate post noted how close Bitcoin was getting by market capitalization compared to U.S. dollar M2 supply. The situation in the next five years — the remainder of the current cycle and start of the next — he commented, will be “very interesting.”