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  • Ethereum Topside Bias Vulnerable If It Struggles Below $3K

    Ethereum Topside Bias Vulnerable If It Struggles Below $3K

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    Ethereum settled below the $3,000 support zone against the US Dollar. ETH price could resume its decline unless there is a clear break above the $3,000 resistance zone.

    • Ethereum started a fresh decline below the $3,100 and $3,000 support levels.
    • The price is now trading below $3,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
    • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $3,000 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
    • The pair could resume its decline unless there is a clear break above the $3,000 resistance zone.

    Ethereum Price Remains At Risk

    Ethereum started another decline from the $3,100 resistance zone. ETH traded below many important support zones near $3,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average, similar to bitcoin.

    The price even broke the $2,800 support level to move further into a bearish zone. A low is formed near $2,651 and the price is now correcting losses. There was a break above the $2,800 and $2,850 resistance levels.

    The price recovered above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the $3,105 swing high to $2,651 low. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $2,880 level. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $3,000 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

    Ethereum Price

    Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

    The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the $3,105 swing high to $2,651 low. A close above the $3,000 resistance could start a decent recovery. The next major resistance might be near the $3,105 level. A clear break and close above the $3,105 level could start a steady increase. The next major resistance sits near $3,135 and the 100 hourly SMA.

    More Losses in ETH?

    If ethereum fails to correct higher above the $2,880 and $3,000 resistance levels, it could start another decline. An initial support on the downside is near the $2,800 level.

    The next major support seems to be forming near the $2,650 level. A downside break below the $2,650 support zone could lead the price towards the $2,550 zone. The next major support is near the $2,500 level, below which ether price might decline towards the $2,420 support zone.

    Technical Indicators

    Hourly MACDThe MACD for ETH/USD is slowly losing pace in the bullish zone.

    Hourly RSIThe RSI for ETH/USD is still below the 50 level.

    Major Support Level – $2,650

    Major Resistance Level – $3,000

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  • Ethereum’s spot setup looks grim, but derivatives data tells a different story

    Ethereum’s spot setup looks grim, but derivatives data tells a different story

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    Ether (ETH) price fell below the $3,000 support on Sept. 20 as global markets entered a risk-aversion mode. The Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ) closed down 4.2%, while the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME) lost 3.8%.

    Some analysts pointed to the potential ripple effects of the default of Evergrande, a major Chinese real estate company. In contrast, others blame the ongoing debates over the debt limit in Washington as the catalyst for this week’s volatility. As a result, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), usually referred to as the “stock market fear index,” jumped by more than 30% to reach its highest level since May.

    On Sept.19, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for Congress to raise the U.S. debt ceiling again in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. Yellen suggested that avoiding this would risk causing the government to default on payments and generate a “widespread economic catastrophe.”

    One of the major focuses for traditional markets is this week’s U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which ends on Sept. 22. At the meeting, the Federal Reserve is expected to signal when it will cut back its $120 billion monthly asset purchase program.

    How these events impact Ether price

    Ether price in USD at Bitstamp. Source: TradingView

    Even though the $3,000 level sits near the bottom range of the previous performance of the past 45 days, Ether still accumulated 210% gains in 2021. The network’s adjusted total value locked (TVL) jumped from $13 billion in 2020 to $60 billion and the decentralized finance (DeFi), gaming, and nonfungible token (NFT) sectors experienced an impressive surge while Ethereum maintained dominance of the sector’s market share.

    Despite mean gas fees surpassing $20 in September, Ethereum has kept roughly 60% of the decentralized exchange (DEX) volume. Its largest competitor, Binance Smart Chain, held an average daily volume slightly below $1 billion, albeit having a transaction fee below $0.40.

    Ether futures data shows pro traders are still bullish

    Ether’s quarterly futures are the preferred instruments of whales and arbitrage desks due to their settlement date and the price difference from spot markets. However, the contract’s biggest advantage is the lack of a fluctuating funding rate.

    These fixed-month contracts usually trade at a slight premium to spot markets, indicating that sellers request more money to withhold settlement longer. Therefore, futures should trade at a 5% to 15% annualized premium in healthy markets. This situation is technically defined as “contango” and is not exclusive to crypto markets.

    ETH futures 3-month annualized premium. Source: Laevitas

    As displayed above, Ether’s futures contracts premium spiked to 15% on Sept. 6 as ETH price tested the $4,000 resistance. Apart from that brief overshot, the basis indicator ranged from 8% to 12% over the past month, considered healthy and bullish.

    The crash to sub-$3,000 in the early hours of Sept. 21 was not enough to scare seasoned traders. More importantly, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Gary Gensler’s interview on cryptocurrency regulation also had no noticeable impact on Ether price. Had there been a generalized fear, Ether futures premium would have reflected this.

    The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.