Author: admin

  • 82% Of Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Supply Now In Loss, Capitulation Ahead?

    82% Of Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Supply Now In Loss, Capitulation Ahead?

    [ad_1]

    On-chain data shows around 82% of the Bitcoin short-term holder supply is currently in loss, suggesting that capitulation may occur soon.

    82% Of Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Supply Now In Loss, While Total STH Supply Declines

    According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, the BTC STH supply is nearing all-time lows at the moment. However, 82% of it is being held at a loss.

    The “BTC short-term holder supply” is that part of the total Bitcoin supply that has been held for less than 155 days.

    The investors holding this supply are usually the likeliest to sell their coins off during market volatility, and especially when a capitulation flush out occurs.

    An on-chain indicator, the Bitcoin STH supply in profit/loss, tells us the percentage distribution between these coins being held at a profit and those being held at a loss.

    When a high amount of this supply is in loss, there may be more sell-side pressure in the market as short-term holders capitulate easily.

    Related Reading | Bitcoin MPI Rises To Highest Value Since March 2021, Bull Rally Soon?

    Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the BTC STH supply over the history of the coin:

    Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Supply In Profit/Loss

    Looks like the value of the indicator has declined over the years | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 11, 2022

    As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH supply has been observing a constant downtrend over much of the history of the coin, and is currently near all-time low values. The decrease in this supply happens when some of the coins mature beyond the 155-day cutoff, thus becoming part of the “long-term holder supply” instead.

    Since short-term holders can be a big source of sell-side pressure, the number of coins held by them severely going down can be bullish for the price of the crypto.

    Related Reading | Bitcoin Hashrate Swells 15% Since Last Week As Analysts Expect Mining Difficulty To Increase

    However, while the supply is low right now, around 82% of it is currently in loss. So despite the decline in total supply, these coins in loss still amount to around 2.5 million BTC, and thus they can add quite significant sell pressure to the market.

    As macro uncertainties like the Russian invasion of Ukraine continue to loom over the Bitcoin market, these short-term holders may finally break and capitulate in case their coins remain in the red or go even deeper.

    BTC Price

    At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $38.5k, down 1% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 10% in value.

    The below chart shows the trend in the price of BTC over the last five days.

    Bitcoin Price Chart

    BTC's price seems to have been in consolidation for a few days now | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
    Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Short term Bitcoin buyers transition to long term holders: Glassnode

    Short term Bitcoin buyers transition to long term holders: Glassnode

    [ad_1]

    Over the past week, long-term holders of Bitcoin increased their spending to a level that suggests de-risking from the market, but hodling remains the predominant investing strategy.

    Uncertain macroeconomic headwinds are likely to have precipitated the increase in the sell-offs last week by long-term holders and shaken some short-term holders out of their positions according to data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode. Last week, coins older than six months accounted for 5% of total spending, which is a level not seen since last November.

    Short-term holders (STH) who have held coins for less than 155 days continue to decline in number, but not necessarily due to selling. Glassnode suggests that while it is generally more common for STH to sell, the recent decline in STH supply “can only occur when large portions of the coin supply are dormant and crossing the 155-day age threshold, becoming Long-Term Holder supply.”

    Bitcoin (BTC) accumulation patterns do not suggest bear market behaviors yet as overall sell pressure remains consistent. Also, more than 75% of the BTC circulating supply has been dormant for at least six months despite the recent uptick in selling. Glassnode says this is an indication that investors are still predominantly hodlers.

    Long-term Bitcoin holders increased selling last week. – Glassnode

    Glassnode noted that the sell-offs have been into a relatively strong market that has avoided any significant moves up or down and has remained range-bound for most of this yea. This is thought to be staving off a capitulation event which often comes at the end of a bear cycle. There has not been a significant capitulation since last May when BTC price crashed from $58,771 to $34,977 over the course of a 15-day period according to CoinGecko.

    The period from the May capitulation event until October marked the last time BTC accumulation resembled bear market behavior.

    BTC accumulation patterns are still above bear market trends. – Glassnode

    The profit/loss ratio of STH supply is still near the all-time low set in mid-2021. Currently, 82% of STH coins are being held at a loss which Glassnode states is an indication of the later stage of a bear market when savvy investors send their coins to cold storage to lie in wait for the return to positive profit margins.

    Short-term holders are in near-record losses. – Glassnode

    Related: BTC price struggles below $39K ahead of expected interest rate hike by the Fed

    As noted in last week’s BTC market update, exchange outflows remain quite high. Coinbase saw its largest outflows in nearly five years last week with 31,130 BTC leaving the exchange. These outflows illustrate Bitcoin’s increasing reputation as a must-have in a modern investor’s portfolio, and a further reluctance to liquidate in a hurry.