Bitcoin Starts Recovery, Why Close above 100 SMA Is Important

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase from the $37,500 support against the US Dollar. BTC must clear the 100 hourly SMA and $40,000 to move into a positive zone.

• Bitcoin started a decent increase above the $38,000 and $38,500 resistance levels.
• The price is now struggling near the $40,000 zone and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $38,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair must settle above the $40,000 barrier to continue higher in the near term.

Bitcoin Price is Rising

Bitcoin price extended its decline below the $38,200 and $38,000 support levels. BTC tested the $37,500 zone, where the bulls took a stand.

A base was formed near $37,500 before the price started a fresh increase. Earlier, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $38,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair climbed higher nicely above the $38,000 and $38,500 resistance levels.

Bitcoin broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the main decline from the $42,630 swing high to $37,533 low. It is now struggling near the $40,000 zone and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The 50% Fib retracement level of the main decline from the $42,630 swing high to $37,533 low is also near the $40,000 zone. Therefore, a close above the 100 hourly SMA and $40,000 might trigger a steady increase. The next major resistance is near the $41,500 level. Any more gains could set the pace for a move towards the $42,500 resistance zone in the near term.

Fresh Decline in BTC?

If bitcoin fails to climb above the $40,000 and $40,200 resistance levels, it could start a fresh downside correction. An initial support on the downside is near the $39,000 level.

The first major support is now near the $38,750 zone. A clear downside break below the $38,750 support might call for a sharp decline. In the stated case, the price might decline towards the $38,000 level. The next major support is near the $37,500 zone.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now well above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $38,750, followed by $38,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $40,000, $40,200 and $41,200.